On Selecting Robust Approaches for Learning Predictive Biomarkers in Metabolomics Data Sets

Metabolomics, the study of small molecules within biological systems, offers insights into metabolic processes and, consequently, holds great promise for advancing health outcomes. Biomarker discovery in metabolomics represents a significant challenge, notably due to the high dimensionality of the data. Recent work has addressed this problem by analyzing the most important variables in machine learning models. Unfortunately, this approach relies on prior hypotheses about the structure of the data and may overlook simple patterns. To assess the true usefulness of machine learning methods, we evaluate them on a collection of 835 metabolomics data sets. This effort provides valuable insights for metabolomics researchers regarding where and when to use machine learning. It also establishes a benchmark for the evaluation of future methods. Nonetheless, the results emphasize the high diversity of data sets in metabolomics and the complexity of finding biologically relevant biomarkers. As a result, we propose a novel approach applicable across all data sets, offering guidance for future analyses. This method involves directly comparing univariate and multivariate models. We demonstrate through selected examples how this approach can guide data analysis across diverse data set structures, representative of the observed variability. Code and data are available for research purposes.