Future health burden and economic costs associated with ambient PM_2.5 pollution in China amid net-zero transition

The impacts of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets on future air pollution and associated health burden and economic costs remain underexplored.

Using the Fusion relative risk model with detailed provincial population age structure, this study projected future PM_2.5 related mortality and years of life lost (YLL) across 31 provinces in China from 2020 to 2060, under four scenarios combining local air pollution control with different climate policies. Health economic costs were evaluated using two metrics - value of a statistical life (VSL) and value per statistical life year (VSLY).

PM_2.5 attributable deaths will increase till 2040 with only clean air and carbon peak policy. Under Zero-carbon scenario, incorporating the ambitious carbon neutrality goal, attributable deaths will decrease by 61.5 % from 2.63 million (95 % UI: 1.97-3.25) in 2020 to 1.01 million (95 % UI: 0.74-1.29) in 2060, and YLL will decline by 71.3 %. Provinces with higher attributable mortality also show greater benefits of implementing ambitious carbon policies. The elderly contribute most to total attributable mortality, reaching 95 % by 2060. Under Zero-carbon scenario, VSL-based health economic costs will decline from 1.65 trillion (7.0 % of GDP) in 2020 to 0.65 trillion USD by 2060 (1.2 % of GDP), while those derived from VSLY will decrease from 0.89 trillion (3.8 % of GDP) to 0.25 trillion USD (0.5 % of GDP).

Stringent climate policies towards carbon neutrality, combined with optimal clean air measures, would effectively reduce future health burden and economic costs from PM_2.5. Region-specific policies and preventive measures for the elderly should be enhanced.