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Exploring stable isotope patterns in monthly precipitation across Southeast Asia using contemporary deep learning
Mojtaba Heydarizad1, Nathsuda Pumijumnong2, Masoud Minaei3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
Machine learning, specifically deep neural networks (DNNs), can accurately simulate stable isotope precipitation in Southeast Asia. This approach overcomes data limitations in the region, advancing climate and water cycle research.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Climatology
- Machine Learning Applications
Background:
- Stable isotopes are vital for understanding tropical water cycles and climate dynamics.
- Southeast Asia faces challenges in collecting precipitation isotope data due to high costs and logistics.
- Limited isotope data hinders comprehensive climate analysis in the region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate machine learning models for simulating stable isotope contents in tropical precipitation.
- To assess the influence of climate teleconnection indices and local meteorological parameters on precipitation isotopes.
- To compare the performance of deep learning models against traditional statistical methods.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a deep neural network (DNN) model for stable isotope simulation.
- Compared DNN performance with a partial least squares regression (PLSR) model.
- Employed SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for feature importance and model interpretability.
Main Results:
- The DNN model demonstrated superior accuracy in simulating stable isotope contents across six Southeast Asian stations.
- Feature importance analysis confirmed the significant impact of precipitation and potential evaporation.
- SHAP analysis revealed nonlinear relationships between key features and predicted isotope values.
Conclusions:
- Deep learning models are effective for simulating stable isotopes in tropical precipitation, addressing data scarcity.
- The study provides a framework for applying machine learning to isotope hydrology in data-limited tropical regions.
- Findings enhance understanding of climate drivers influencing tropical water cycles.
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