Analyzing Orthopaedic Workforce Trends in an Ever-changing Landscape

Shifts in US population dynamics may result in an insufficient orthopaedic surgery workforce to meet the increasing demand for musculoskeletal services. Our study aimed to analyze the projected supply and demand for orthopaedic surgeons from 2021 to 2036.

We analyzed data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model to assess supply and demand of the orthopaedic surgery workforce in full-time equivalents (FTEs). Physician demand was evaluated under two scenarios: the status quo and reduced barriers, where historically underserved populations experience improved access to care. We compared the total supply and demand for orthopaedic surgeon FTEs from 2021 to 2036 and assessed adequacy, defined as the ratio of projected supply to projected demand, for each year.

Total supply of orthopaedic surgeons is projected to decline by 510 FTEs (2%) by 2036. By contrast, demand is expected to increase by 3,140 FTEs (10%) in the status quo and by 4,720 FTEs (13%) in the reduced barriers scenario. Overall adequacy for the orthopaedic workforce will decrease from 100% in 2021 to 89% by 2036 in the status quo, and from 84% to 74% in the reduced barriers scenario. By 2036, adequacy is projected to be 95% (status quo) and 79% (reduced barriers) in metro areas, and 52% (status quo) and 42% (reduced barriers) in nonmetro areas.

A notable shortage of orthopaedic surgeon FTEs is expected by 2036, particularly impacting nonmetro areas. Additional research is needed to identify solutions for meeting the growing demand for musculoskeletal services while ensuring high-quality care.

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