Development and validation of a predictive nomogram for frailty based on thyroid function in older adults

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Endocrinology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Frailty is a significant concern in aging populations.
• Thyroid function is crucial for overall health, but its role in frailty among individuals with normal thyroid function requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive model for frailty in older adults with normal thyroid function.
• To assess the contribution of thyroid hormone levels to frailty risk.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 767 older adults (≥65 years) was used, with random assignment to training and validation sets.
• Frailty was assessed using the FRAIL scale.
• LASSO and logistic regression identified predictors, including FT3/FT4 ratio, for a nomogram-based model.

Main Results:

• The final model included age, polypharmacy, MNA.SF score, grip strength, and the FT3/FT4 ratio.
• The model demonstrated strong predictive performance with AUC values of 0.92 in the development set and 0.80 in the external validation set.
• A negative correlation was observed between the FT3/FT4 ratio and frailty, even after adjusting for confounders.

Conclusions:

• A clinically applicable model for predicting frailty in older adults with normal thyroid function was successfully developed.
• Thyroid hormone status, specifically the FT3/FT4 ratio, is a relevant factor in assessing frailty risk.