Early changes in choroidal thickness and ocular biometry in predicting who will achieve full myopia control with...

To evaluate the early predictors for achieving full myopia control with repeated low-level red light (RLRL) therapy based on two independent randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

Myopic children undergoing RLRL therapy from a multi-center RCT (training set) and a single-center RCT (validation set) were included. Full myopia control was defined as axial elongation <0.1mm/year. Variables included age, sex, baseline refraction, ocular parameters at baseline, 1 and 3 months (axial length [AL] and subfoveal choroidal thickness [sChT]), as well as their rates of change over the first 3 months. Four random forest models to predict full myopia control after 1 year and a logistic regression was used to estimate 2-year outcome.

A total of 148 children were analyzed. The proportions of 1-year full myopia control was 54.2 % of eyes in the training set and 55.0 % in the validation set. Random forest models incorporating the rate of change in AL and sChT showed high predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.97 to 0.98) in external validation. The rate of change in AL contributed the most for model accuracy. For 2-year control, the rate of AL change had an AUC of 0.99 while the rate of change in sChT achieved only 0.69.

The rate of change in AL during the first three months emerged as the most important predictor for treatment outcomes at both 1-year and 2-year, rather than the change in sChT. Early monitoring of AL changes could be a valuable tool for identifying children most likely to benefit from this intervention.