Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems

Area of Science:

• Energy Systems Analysis
• Climate Change Impact Studies
• Power Grid Economics

Background:

• Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of supply-demand imbalances in power systems.
• High penetrations of variable renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, are susceptible to these imbalances.
• Future power systems require enhanced resilience to manage climate-driven disruptions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the potential increase in hourly electricity costs due to climate-intensified supply-demand gaps.
• To evaluate the impact of these gaps under fixed, high wind and solar energy generation scenarios.
• To explore strategies for improving power system resilience against climate change.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a dispatch optimization model to simulate future power system operations.
• Analyzed hourly costs, focusing on extreme periods (top 10% most costly hours).
• Assessed various mitigation strategies for enhancing system flexibility and resilience.

Main Results:

• Extreme periods are projected to become more costly in most countries due to increased demand for flexible energy capacity.
• Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, 47 countries may see average hourly costs during extreme periods increase by over 5%, with some reaching 23.7%.
• These cost increases are linked to climate-intensified gaps between electricity supply and demand.

Conclusions:

• Tailored, country-specific strategies involving multiple measures can substantially mitigate the risk of rising electricity costs.
• Coordinated implementation of strategies addressing supply-demand imbalances and enhancing flexibility is crucial.
• Findings offer insights for developing cost-effective, climate-resilient power systems for the future.