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Counting general practitioners: a comparative repeat cross-sectional analysis of GPs in NHS general practice in
Luisa M Pettigrew1,2, Soraya Akl3, Aamena Bharmal4
1Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK luisa.pettigrew@lshtm.ac.uk.
Defining general practice (GP) numbers significantly impacts workforce trends. Counting all GPs showed an 18% rise, but fully qualified full-time-equivalent GPs decreased by 5%, revealing crucial differences in GP capacity analysis.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Medical Workforce Analysis
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Accurate assessment of National Health Service (NHS) general practice (GP) workforce is vital for service planning.
- Discrepancies in how GP data is collected and analyzed can lead to misinterpretations of workforce trends.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare National Health Service (NHS) general practice (GP) numbers and trends based on different definitions and data analysis methods.
- To evaluate the impact of including or excluding GP trainees and considering full-time-equivalent (FTE) measures on workforce statistics.
Main Methods:
- A comparative, repeat cross-sectional study design was employed, analyzing English NHS general practice data quarterly from September 2015 to September 2024.
- Data were compared using headcount versus FTE, with and without GP trainees, and in relation to the registered population size.
Main Results:
- Between September 2015 and September 2024, the total count of fully qualified GPs and GP trainees increased by 18% (41,193 to 48,758).
- Conversely, the count of fully qualified FTE GPs alone showed a 5% reduction (29,364 to 27,966).
- GP per capita trends varied significantly, ranging from a 6% rise to a 15% reduction, and the number of patients per fully qualified FTE GP increased, with a widening percentile range.
Conclusions:
- The definition of general practice (GP) numbers, consideration of working hours (FTE), and population metrics significantly influence the interpretation of workforce trends.
- Fully qualified FTE GPs per capita offer the closest reflection of GP capacity, despite limitations in current NHS data.
- Reporting patient load per GP at the practice level is essential to understand the increasing disparities in GP provision across England.
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