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Updated: Sep 18, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Rapid Risk Assessment Framework to Estimate Potential for Spillback at Human-Wildlife Interfaces.

Travis McDevitt-Galles1, Tricia L Fry1, Katherine L D Richgels1

  • 1National Wildlife Health Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
|June 23, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Human activities can cause diseases to spread from wildlife to humans and back again. This study developed a rapid risk assessment framework to identify wildlife species and locations at high risk for zoonotic disease spillback events.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Emerging infectious diseases often originate in wildlife, posing risks of spillback to human populations.
  • Spillback events, where diseases spread from humans back to wildlife, can cause severe wildlife morbidity/mortality and prolonged human exposure.
  • Identifying risk factors for rare human-wildlife transmission is crucial for mitigation but challenging due to data limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a spatially explicit, rapid risk assessment framework to identify species and locations vulnerable to zoonotic disease spillback.
  • To assess the spillback risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and mpox to wild mammals in the continental United States.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a framework incorporating wildlife susceptibility, wildlife exposure, and pathogen introduction pressure.
  • Applied the framework to assess spillback risks for SARS-CoV-2 and mpox in the continental US wild mammalian species.
  • Utilized a spatially explicit approach for rapid risk assessment.

Main Results:

  • Identified specific wild mammalian species and geographic locations within the continental US exhibiting higher-than-expected spillback risk for SARS-CoV-2 and mpox.
  • The framework successfully pinpointed areas and species requiring prioritized surveillance and mitigation efforts.
  • Demonstrated the framework's applicability to emerging zoonotic pathogens.

Conclusions:

  • The developed rapid risk assessment framework is effective for identifying spillback risks during zoonotic disease outbreaks.
  • Provides crucial data for wildlife and public health managers to prioritize surveillance and risk-mitigation actions.
  • Offers a flexible approach to assess spillback risks in wildlife populations facing evolving zoonotic threats.