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Randomised land use pathway generation allows efficient multi-outcome appraisal.

Joshua P Copping1, Richard B Bradbury2,3, Rob H Field2

  • 1Centre for Conservation Science, RSPB, Sandy, Bedfordshire, UK. joshua.copping@rspb.org.uk.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Exploring 10,000 land use futures for the UK reveals multiple pathways to net zero emissions. These scenarios highlight inherent trade-offs between climate mitigation, food production, and biodiversity, with varying outcomes based on decision-making scales.

Keywords:
AgricultureBiodiversity conservationClimate changeFood productionScenario modelling

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Mitigation
  • Land Use Planning

Background:

  • Land use scenario modelling is crucial for addressing interconnected environmental challenges like biodiversity loss, climate change, and food security.
  • Identifying efficient solutions from numerous potential future land use pathways is essential for effective environmental policy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To generate and evaluate a large set of random land use pathways for the UK to identify efficient routes to a net zero land sector.
  • To analyze the impacts of these pathways on food production and breeding bird habitats.
  • To compare the efficiency and equity of land use decision-making at national versus devolved nation scales.

Main Methods:

  • Generation of 10,000 random future land use pathways for the UK.
  • Inclusion of eight randomly deployed land-based climate change mitigation measures in each pathway.
  • Multi-criteria evaluation of pathways considering net zero targets, food production, and habitat availability.

Main Results:

  • Multiple distinct pathways exist for achieving a net zero UK land sector.
  • Significant trade-offs are observed between climate mitigation goals, food production levels, and habitat availability for breeding birds.
  • Pathways identified are more efficient than those from previous, more limited studies.
  • UK-scale decision-making shows slightly higher efficiency but leads to less equitable outcomes compared to devolved nation-scale decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • Achieving a net zero land sector in the UK is feasible through various land use strategies, but requires careful management of inherent trade-offs.
  • Optimizing land use for climate mitigation, food security, and biodiversity requires considering different spatial and governance scales.
  • Devolved nation-scale decision-making may offer more equitable solutions for land use management despite minor efficiency differences compared to UK-scale approaches.