Squamous cell carcinoma: Dynamics and prediction of relative survival revealed using model-based period analysis

Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is a common and aggressive malignancy, often diagnosed at advanced stages with a high tendency for lymph node metastasis, leading to poor prognosis. Understanding current survival rates is crucial, as analyzing SCC survival trends helps identify prognostic factors, evaluate treatment effectiveness, and guide clinical decision-making to improve patient outcomes.

Period analyses were used to examine the relative survival rates and trends in patients with SCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2000-2019). In addition, generalized linear models based on data stratified by age, race, sex, area, stage, and subtype in the SEER database were created to forecast the 5-year relative survival of SCC patients from 2020 to 2024.

During the observation period, different degrees of increase were reflected in the 5-year relative survival rates of overall SCC and most SCC subtypes, with the most significant improvement in small cell nonkeratinizing squamous cell carcinoma, from 38.4 % to 68.8 %. The comprehensive 5-year relative survival rates for SCC during the respective intervals of 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019 were recorded as 44.1 %, 46.7 %, 47.8 %, and 51.5 %, sequentially. In most subtypes, women had slightly higher survival rates than men. In addition, survival rates were significantly higher in urban areas than in rural areas, lower in the elderly than in the young, and higher in white patients than in nonwhite patients, with significantly lower survival rates for SCC with distant metastases.

During the two decades from 2000 to 2019, we observed a general trend of gradual improvement in the survival rate of SCC patients. This upward trend is expected to continue during the five-year period 2020-2024, according to projections. Through an in-depth assessment of the status of SCC patients over the past two decades, we can better predict the future trend of SCC. This not only provides a scientific basis for the relevant authorities, but also provides strong support for the development of effective tumor prevention and control strategies.