Predictors and Long-Term Outcomes of Pathological Complete Response Following Neoadjuvant Treatment and Radical...

Background: Pathological complete response (pCR) following neoadjuvant therapy and surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer is associated with improved prognosis. Accurately predicting who will achieve pCR could theoretically eliminate the need for surgery for these patients. We aimed to compare pCR and non-pCR rectal cancer patients following neoadjuvant therapy, searching for clinical predictors for pCR and comparing oncological outcomes between these groups. Methods: This is a single-center retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent a curative-intent rectal resection between 2010 and 2020 for primary non-metastatic rectal cancer following neoadjuvant therapy. The cohort (263 patients) was divided into two groups according to the pathological results from surgery: the pCR group (53 patients) and the non-pCR group (210 patients). Results: The groups were similar in terms of baseline characteristics, clinical presentation, and staging, but tumors of the pCR group were significantly higher in the rectum (mean distance from the anal verge 7.92 cm versus 6.9 cm respectively, p = 0.04), and more of them were located at the posterior rectal wall (37.7% versus 24.3%, p = 0.049). Multivariate analysis found posterior location and tumor height to be significantly associated with pCR (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.11-4.45, p = 0.023), (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03-1.27, p = 0.015). The 5-year overall survival was 95.6% in the pCR group compared with 87.5% in the non-pCR group (p = 0.09), and the 5-year disease-free survival was 92.7% versus 64.5%, respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tumor location at the posterior wall of the rectum and higher tumor location were found to be associated with pCR. Patients achieving pCR demonstrate improved prognosis compared with non-pCR patients.