Healthy working life expectancy across birth cohorts in the United States

This study investigates trends in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) in the United States amid changing retirement conditions and recent declines in health among working-age individuals. HWLE, defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy and working between ages 51 and 80, is examined by gender and educational level across three birth cohorts.

Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), HWLE estimates were calculated for individuals aged 51 and older. Using continuous-time multistate modelling, trends were analyzed across three birth cohorts (1936-1941, 1942-1947, 1948-1953), focusing on differences by gender and educational attainment to assess disparities in HWLE over time.

The findings indicate that HWLE remained stable for most groups but declined among individuals with lower educational attainment. Thus, as early retirement becomes increasingly costly and risky, workers appear unable to extend their working lives and are facing growing inequalities.

These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to promote healthier work environments and expanded job opportunities for older adults. Addressing disparities in HWLE, particularly for those with less education, is critical to improving outcomes for future cohorts as they approach retirement age.