Can Pandemic Preparedness Benefit from Health-Economic Modelling? The Case for Nipah Virus

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Health Economics
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Global pandemic preparedness relies on epidemiological models like the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework.
• SEIR models alone may not fully support healthcare decision-making, particularly regarding resource allocation and economic impacts.
• This study addresses the need for integrated modeling to assess treatment cost-effectiveness for future pandemics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To integrate health economic (HE) modeling into the SEIR framework.
• To assess the cost-effectiveness of treatments for potential future pandemics.
• To use the Nipah virus as a case study for this integrated modeling approach.

Main Methods:

• A structured literature review informed the development of a SEIR-based HE model.
• The model incorporated cost-effectiveness analysis and was built using TreeAge Healthcare Pro.
• Simulations involved 1 million random walks over 10 years, comparing Ribavirin with standard care.

Main Results:

• The integrated model successfully calculated key epidemiological and economic outcomes.
• Ribavirin was demonstrated to be cost-effective in the context of Nipah virus treatment.
• Sensitivity analyses identified key cost drivers, confirming the model's feasibility for pandemic planning.

Conclusions:

• An extended SEIR model integrating health economics was developed for the Nipah virus.
• The model proved useful for decision-makers in an explorative health economic assessment.
• The disease model demonstrates adaptability and flexibility for rapid deployment during future pandemics.