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Can Pandemic Preparedness Benefit from Health-Economic Modelling? The Case for Nipah Virus
Wendelin Schramm1, David Buchmann1, Hanni Hille1
1GECKO Institute, Dept. Health Economics and Health Management, Hochschule Heilbronn, Germany.
Abstract:
Global pandemic preparedness efforts rely on epidemiological models like the SEIR framework (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered). However, SEIR models alone may not fully support healthcare decision-making, especially concerning resource allocation and economic impacts. This study integrates health economic (HE) modeling into SEIR to assess the cost-effectiveness of treatments for potential future pandemics, using Nipah virus as a case study.
Methods:
A structured literature review informed the development of a SEIR-based HE model incorporating cost-effectiveness analysis. The model, built in TreeAge Healthcare Pro, simulated 1 million random walks over 10 years, comparing Ribavirin with standard care.
Results:
The model successfully calculated key epidemiological and economic outcomes, demonstrating Ribavirin's cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses identified key cost drivers, supporting the model's feasibility for pandemic planning.
Conclusions:
Based on the available evidence-based literature, an extended SEIR model was developed for the pandemic candidate virus Nipah, and it demonstrated its usefulness for decision makers in an explorative health economic assessment. The disease model could be adapted quickly and flexibly in the event of a pandemic.
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