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Enhancing PV power forecasting through feature selection and artificial neural networks: a case study.

Mokhtar Ali1, Abdelhalim Rabehi1, Abdelkerim Souahlia1

  • 1Telecommunications and Smart Systems Laboratory, University of Djelfa, P.O. Box 3117, 17000, Djelfa, Algeria.

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Feature selection significantly boosts photovoltaic power forecasting accuracy when combined with artificial neural networks like MLP and LSTM. This improves solar energy management and grid stability.

Keywords:
Artificial neural networksFeatures selectionForecastingPV powerRenewable energy

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Area of Science:

  • Renewable Energy Systems
  • Artificial Intelligence in Energy
  • Data Science for Power Grids

Background:

  • Growing demand for reliable renewable energy forecasting.
  • Need for improved accuracy in photovoltaic (PV) power output prediction.
  • Challenges in managing solar energy due to its intermittent nature.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To enhance photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting accuracy.
  • To systematically integrate feature selection techniques with artificial neural networks (ANNs).
  • To identify the most relevant predictors for PV output.

Main Methods:

  • Employed feature selection methods: ReliefF, minimum correlation, Chi-square test.
  • Developed and tested two predictive models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks.
  • Utilized a real-world PV dataset from southern Algeria.

Main Results:

  • Feature selection significantly improved forecasting accuracy for both MLP and LSTM models.
  • ReliefF with MLP achieved a normalized Mean Absolute Error (nMAE) of 9.21% and R² of 0.9608.
  • Chi-square selected features with LSTM resulted in an nMAE of 9.29% and R² of 0.946.

Conclusions:

  • Careful feature selection enhances ANN model performance for PV forecasting.
  • Feature selection reduces model complexity and improves generalization capabilities.
  • Findings offer valuable insights for efficient solar energy management and grid stability.