Return migration of Dutch pensioners abroad: Intentions and behaviour in a three-year follow-up study

Insecurities and risks related to ageing in a foreign country could fuel return migration among international retirement migrants. The few studies examining retirement migrants' return have been small in scale and focused mainly on return intentions rather than return behaviour. In this paper, we examine the prevalence and predictors of return migration among retirement migrants and the discrepancy between return intentions and return behaviour. We collected survey data on a representative sample of 5,065 Dutch retirement migrants in 40 destinations and combined them with administrative data on return migration. Three years after data collection, almost 9 per cent had returned to the Netherlands, whereas less than 5 per cent had intended to return during this period. Our findings show how age-related changes and transnational ties to the country of origin increase the likelihood of return. Our results also suggest that retirement migrants may underestimate the long-term implications and social embeddedness of the return migration decision.