A Framework for Modelling Thermal Load Sensitivity Across Life

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Physiology
• Climate Change Biology

Background:

• Predicting species vulnerability to climate warming necessitates understanding thermal stress impacts in natural settings.
• Current physiological metrics often overlook natural heat exposure regimes, limiting vulnerability assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce the thermal load sensitivity (TLS) framework, integrating biophysical exposure with physiological damage and repair dynamics.
• To provide a method for assessing sublethal impacts of thermal stress on organisms.

Main Methods:

• Developed the thermal load sensitivity (TLS) framework, extending the thermal death time (TDT) model.
• Integrated principles of biophysics for exposure quantification and physiology for damage/repair dynamics.
• Utilized case studies and simulation examples for framework application.

Main Results:

• The TLS framework disentangles damage accumulation and repair processes influencing thermal stress responses.
• Demonstrated the framework's utility in assessing thermal sensitivity across taxa, ontogeny, and for modular organisms.
• Highlighted the integration of multiple stressors alongside temperature.

Conclusions:

• The TLS framework offers a more comprehensive approach to understanding and predicting thermal vulnerability.
• Identified research opportunities for refining physiological measures and improving predictions at various scales.
• Emphasized the need for integrative approaches in climate change vulnerability assessments.