Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions

Area of Science:

• Complex Systems Science
• Epidemiology
• Socio-economic Modeling

Background:

• Contagions like epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence create complex spatial patterns.
• Population mobility, risk perception, and resource allocation significantly influence contagion dynamics.
• Existing models often lack a generalized framework to address diverse contagion types and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a generic framework for modeling various contagions in spatially structured populations.
• To investigate the impact of individual risk aversion and resource effectiveness on contagion spread.
• To explore the phenomenon of generalized shield immunity and its varying effectiveness across different contagion types.

Main Methods:

• Development of a concise, generic mathematical framework incorporating bounded risk disposition and generalized resource effectiveness.
• Simulation and analysis of contagion dynamics under varying parameters of individual risk aversion and resource intervention.
• Comparative analysis of pattern formation and spread for epidemics, infodemics, social myths, and socio-economic disruptions.

Main Results:

• "Inoculated" individuals exhibiting risk-averse behavior can mitigate contagion impact by reducing transmission, a phenomenon termed generalized shield immunity.
• The effectiveness of this shield immunity varies significantly: strongest in socio-economic turbulence, moderate in epidemics, limited in social myth spreading, and absent in polarization dynamics.
• Resource effectiveness in reducing contagion incidence plays a crucial role in shaping spatial patterns and overall spread.

Conclusions:

• Generalized shield immunity, emerging from individual risk disposition, offers a novel perspective on contagion mitigation.
• Understanding the interplay between risk aversion, resource allocation, and contagion type is vital for effective intervention strategies.
• The framework provides a versatile tool for analyzing and predicting the spread of diverse phenomena across complex spatial systems.