Global risks posed by hornets to the provision of crop pollination

Hornets pose significant risks to pollinator-dependent crop production, threatening food security and ecosystem health. This study provides a spatial evaluation of current and future exposure of pollinator-dependent crops to hornet predation, focusing on the potential impacts of their predatory behaviour on insect pollinator populations. More than half of current hornet observations globally are concentrated in areas with high pollination dependent crop production of southern Asia, central Europe, and North America, where they can cause the greatest harm. Up to 6 % of global pollinator-dependent croplands are projected to become hornet hotspots by 2070. Crops under highest exposure to hornets include soybeans in North America, apples in Europe and watermelon in Asia. Hornet expansion, facilitated by global shipping and climate change, increases pressure on insect pollinator populations, negatively affecting crop yields and quality. We emphasize the need for effective management strategies, including early detection and control measures, to mitigate these risks. This research provides critical spatial insights to inform policy decisions aimed at safeguarding pollination services essential for sustainable agriculture.