Invasive alien mammals pose zoonotic risks to human health in Europe

The rise in zoonotic diseases is accelerating, with climate change expected to further intensify this trend. Invasive Alien Species (IAS) play an important role in the emergence and spread of zoonotic diseases by introducing both existing and novel pathogens to the regions they invade. Despite this, research on the role of IAS in spreading zoonotic diseases remains limited. Our study investigated the zoonotic risks posed by eight invasive mammal species prioritized for management in Europe. On average, each species was found to transmit 16 pathogens capable of causing severe diseases in humans, including Echinococcosis, Leptospirosis, Lyme neuroborreliosis, and Encephalitis. We identified central and western Europe as significant disease hotspots. Climate change is facilitating the expansion of IAS into new areas, as warmer temperatures make previously inhospitable regions suitable. Future projections indicate a northeastward shift in their suitability by 2050. These changes vary by species, with the Siberian chipmunk losing up to 45 % of its suitability, while the gray squirrel could see a 26 % increase under a high-emissions scenario. Finally, we found that 71 % of the human population lives in areas highly suitable for IAS establishment. Our findings underscore the health risks associated with IAS and highlight the need for further research into their role in disease dynamics. Addressing this issue is essential for developing effective public health strategies and mitigating future zoonotic disease outbreaks.