Changes in Model-Based and Model-Free Control Prospectively Predict Drinking Trajectories in Young Men

Expanding our previous findings that model-based/model-free (MB/MF) control-often conceptualized as goal-directed and habitual behavior-at age 18 years was associated with alcohol drinking trajectories over 3 years, in this study, we investigated whether changes in MB/MF control from ages 18 to 21 1) stem from alcohol exposure and 2) predict drinking patterns up to age 24.

We followed a community sample of 124 18-year-old men for 6 years. At ages 18 and 21, participants performed a 2-step task assessing MB and MF control while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (91 neural datasets). Drinking behavior was assessed using annual interviews complemented by questionnaires every 6 months. Correlation coefficients assessed the effect of cumulative alcohol exposure from ages 18 to 21 on changes in MB/MF parameters. Latent growth curve models were used to evaluate associations between MB/MF changes and drinking trajectories from ages 21 to 24.

Alcohol exposure from ages 18 to 21 showed no significant effect on changes in MB/MF control. An increased MB behavioral score was protective for binge drinking, while an increased MF behavioral score predicted higher binge drinking at age 21 but not its future development. Changes in MF ventral striatum signals were associated with escalated consumption score development from ages 21 to 24, whereas MF ventromedial prefrontal signals showed a protective effect.

Changes in behavioral and neural MB and MF control were linked to future drinking patterns, suggesting that interventions aimed at modulating MB/MF controls could help mitigate subsequent risky drinking behaviors.