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Changes in Model-Based and Model-Free Control Prospectively Predict Drinking Trajectories in Young Men.

Hao Chen1, Sören Kuitunen-Paul2, Maria Garbusow3

  • 1Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.

Biological Psychiatry
|July 6, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Changes in goal-directed (model-based) and habitual (model-free) control from ages 18 to 21 did not stem from alcohol exposure. However, these changes predict future alcohol drinking patterns up to age 24.

Keywords:
Alcohol drinking trajectoryBinge drinkingModel-based controlModel-free controlReward prediction errorRisky alcohol use

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Area of Science:

  • Neuroscience
  • Psychology
  • Addiction Research

Background:

  • Previous research linked 18-year-old model-based/model-free (MB/MF) control to 3-year alcohol drinking trajectories.
  • This study examines if changes in MB/MF control from ages 18-21 are influenced by alcohol exposure and predict drinking up to age 24.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate the impact of alcohol exposure on MB/MF control changes.
  • Determine if MB/MF control changes predict future alcohol consumption patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Followed 124 young men from age 18 to 24.
  • Assessed MB/MF control using a two-step task and fMRI at ages 18 and 21.
  • Collected annual drinking behavior data.
  • Analyzed alcohol exposure effects on MB/MF changes and MB/MF changes' prediction of drinking trajectories.

Main Results:

  • Alcohol exposure (ages 18-21) did not significantly alter MB/MF control.
  • Higher MB scores protected against binge drinking; higher MF scores predicted binge drinking at age 21.
  • Changes in MF ventral striatum signals predicted increased alcohol consumption, while MF ventromedial prefrontal signals showed a protective effect.

Conclusions:

  • Behavioral and neural MB/MF control changes predict future drinking patterns.
  • Interventions targeting MB/MF control may reduce risky drinking behaviors.