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Updated: Sep 16, 2025

A Protocol for Conducting Rainfall Simulation to Study Soil Runoff
Published on: April 3, 2014
Rainfall forecast in Brazil using machine learning.
Sidney T da Silva1, Letícia C Milani1, Enrique C Gabrick2
1Department of Chemical, Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba 81531-980, PR, Brazil.
Machine learning models accurately predict rainfall across five Brazilian regions. Random forest models showed the best performance, outperforming recurrent neural networks for precipitation forecasting.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Data Science
- Climate Science
Background:
- Machine learning (ML) is vital for predicting climate patterns and extreme weather events.
- Accurate rainfall forecasting supports agriculture, water management, energy, and public safety.
- ML models can anticipate climate shifts, enabling proactive planning and disaster mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate three ML models for precipitation prediction in five Brazilian regions.
- To compare the performance of Random Forest, Long Short-Term Memory, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory models.
- To assess the effectiveness of ML in forecasting rainfall patterns using climate reanalysis data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Random Forest, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) models.
- Trained models using local temperature and Atlantic Ocean temperature as input features.
- Used total precipitation as the target variable for prediction across five Brazilian regions.
Main Results:
- All evaluated ML models demonstrated satisfactory performance in precipitation prediction.
- The Random Forest model achieved lower average absolute errors compared to LSTM and BiLSTM.
- The study confirms the efficacy of ML techniques in forecasting rainfall patterns.
Conclusions:
- Machine learning models are effective tools for rainfall forecasting in Brazil.
- Random Forest offers a robust and accurate approach for precipitation prediction.
- Accurate rainfall forecasts enhance climate change adaptation and resource management strategies.

