Applying Ensemble Ecological Niche Modeling to Identify High Risk Areas for Scorpions' Sting

Scorpion stings are a global health problem, potentially impacting thousands, especially across northern Africa and the Middle East. However, scorpions are comparatively understudied compared to other venomous animals, and little is known about their distributions and associated spatial patterns of sting risk. Timely access to medical treatment after scorpion stings is crucial to positive medical outcomes, but it remains poorly understood how accessible health care is for populations at risk. Thus, mapping hotspots of sting risk and identifying vulnerable populations can greatly enhance mitigation strategies. In this study, we used ecological niche models to map the distribution of eight of the most dangerous scorpion species to quantify sting risk across Iran. We identified the areas where people are most vulnerable to scorpion stings based on exposure to scorpions and limited accessibility to healthcare centers. We identified sting risk areas for each species across their distribution ranges. Androctonus crassicauda has the widest distribution range. On the contrary, Orthochirus iranus has the smallest distribution range. Regions of greatest vulnerability are located in the central parts of Iran, as well as the south and southwest of the country. Our results provide valuable information for decision makers by supporting targeted awareness-raising programs and antivenom distribution among the most vulnerable populations.