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Considering What We Know and What We Don't Know: Expectations and Confidence Guide Value Integration in Value-Based
Romy Frömer1,2, Frederick Callaway3,4, Thomas L Griffiths3
1Cognitive, Linguistic and Psychological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
People adaptively adjust their choices based on how much they know and trust different options. Attention and confidence increase preference for good choices but decrease it for bad ones, improving decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Science
- Decision Science
- Neuroscience
Background:
- Decision-making often involves incomplete information about various options.
- Prior research indicates a preference for options receiving more attention and higher confidence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how information acquisition, attention, and confidence influence preferential choices.
- To develop a formal model predicting the impact of information on decision-making under uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Developed a Bayesian sequential sampling model incorporating attention and confidence.
- Conducted two experiments manipulating option value and attention independently.
- Analyzed how attention and confidence affect choice probability based on option quality.
Main Results:
- Confirmed that attention and confidence boost preference for superior options.
- Demonstrated that attention and confidence decrease preference for inferior options.
- Validated the model's prediction that information's impact is context-dependent.
Conclusions:
- Decision-making is adaptive, utilizing contextual knowledge and uncertainty to guide information seeking.
- Attention and confidence are dynamically employed to optimize choices based on perceived option value.
- This work refines understanding of attention and confidence in preferential decision-making.
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