Analysing trends in the use of technical systems in prospective ergonomics: the case of the phone

The concept of trend is often mentioned in the literature on prospective ergonomics, yet few methods exist to capture and use them to anticipate the use of future things. In this paper, we present an exploratory study examining how the instrumental approach to mediated activity, a tradition of research in Activity-centred ergonomics, can serve as a basis to identify trends in the evolution of future system use. Nine ergonomists with experience in innovative technology design took part in a series of interviews aiming to examine past and present uses of a familiar piece of technology - the phone - and to extrapolate descriptions of its future use. Results allowed us to construct trend boards - tools allowing designers to discuss trends in the evolution of user activities, to assist the early stages of a design process. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for the practice of prospective ergonomics.