Impact of Short-Term and Prolonged (Multi-Year) Droughts on Tree Mortality at the Individual Tree and Stand Levels

Droughts accompanied by high temperatures are becoming increasingly frequent across Europe and globally. Both individual trees and entire forest ecosystems are exposed to drought stress, with prolonged drought periods leading to increased tree mortality. Therefore, continuous monitoring, data collection, and analysis of tree mortality are essential prerequisites for understanding the complex interactions between climate and trees. This study examined the effects of short-term and prolonged (multi-year) droughts on the mortality of individual trees and forests in Serbia. The analysis was based on datasets from our previous research on the influence of drought and drought duration on individual tree mortality in Serbian forest ecosystems, supplemented with new data collected through the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). Additionally, we incorporated data from the public enterprise (PE) "Srbijašume", which manages forests in Central Serbia, focusing on random yields resulting from natural disasters (droughts). These data enabled a comparative assessment of the findings on increased mortality and drought impact at both the individual tree level and the stand level. This study identifies key similarities and differences in tree mortality trends based on drought duration and examines their correlations within the same time frame (2004-2023). By analysing climatic conditions across Serbia, we provide evidence of the interaction between drought periods and increased forest mortality, which we further confirmed by calculating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We also address the tree species that were most sensitive to the effects of drought. Our findings indicate that prolonged (multi-year) droughts, accompanied by high temperatures, have significantly contributed to increased tree mortality over the past decade. Successive multi-year droughts pose a substantial threat to both individual trees and entire forests, producing more severe and persistent responses compared to those caused by single-year droughts, which forests and individual trees are generally more capable of tolerating. Moreover, due to prolonged drought stress, trees weaken, leading to delayed mortality that may manifest several years after the initial drought event. The observed increase in tree mortality has been found to correlate with rising temperatures and the growing frequency of prolonged droughts over the past decade. Especially, intense droughts in the growing season (April-September) have a very negative impact on forests.