Cross-border ungulate protection: Identifying transboundary conservation challenges and integrated solutions in...

Globally, over half of all terrestrial animals have ranges that cross international borders, making transboundary conservation crucial for protecting threatened species and their habitats. In Central Asia, the Hindu-Kush Karakoram-Pamir Landscape (HKPL), spanning Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and Tajikistan is a critical habitat for mountain ungulates, including Marco Polo sheep (MPS) and Siberian ibex (ibex). These two wide-ranging and migratory species face significant challenges associated with habitat loss, competition with domesticated ungulates, and climate change. To better understand these challenges, we conducted a systematic review using the PSALSAR framework to identify the conservation challenges faced by each of these two ungulate species. We identified current and future suitable habitats using ensemble Species Distribution Models (eSDMs). Our models indicate that 44-48 % of suitable habitat for MPS and ibex currently falls within protected areas. However, under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat is projected to decline by up to 11 %. Most habitat loss will occur in the countries of China and Tajikistan. Despite protected areas and anti-poaching measures, both species face increasing habitat fragmentation, range restrictions due to border fencing, pasture overuse, disease transmission from livestock, illegal hunting, and inadequate law enforcement. Along with expanding habitat connectivity, separating livestock grazing zones, and restoring degraded habitat, transboundary cooperation is critical for species survivorship. We recommend expanding community-based conservation through education, incorporating traditional knowledge into management plans, and improving local food security through profit sharing. Actions taken to promote wildlife conservation in the HKPL can serve as a model for conserving mountain ecosystems globally.