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Recent personal and vicarious experience with COVID-19 affects personal, but not comparative optimism: a large
Margaux Delporte1,2, Dries De Witte3, Stefaan Demarest4
1KU Leuven (L-BioStat), Leuven, Belgium.
Journal of Behavioral Medicine
|July 16, 2025
Summary
Personal and vicarious COVID-19 experiences reduced optimism about infection likelihood but increased optimism for good outcomes. Perceived control over infection and severe disease decreased, but did not mediate optimism changes.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Public Health
- Behavioral Science
Background:
- Optimism bias, or the illusion of unique invulnerability, influences risk perception.
- Understanding how personal and vicarious experiences with diseases like COVID-19 affect optimism is crucial for public health communication.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of personal and vicarious COVID-19 experiences on personal and comparative optimism.
- To examine the role of perceived control in mediating changes in optimism.
Main Methods:
- A large-scale, 5-wave longitudinal study (N ≈ 5000) in Belgium (December 2020-May 2021).
- Participants reported personal/vicarious COVID-19 experiences and optimism regarding infection, severity, and outcomes.
- Assessed changes in personal optimism, comparative optimism, and perceived control.
Main Results:
- Neither personal nor vicarious experience altered comparative optimism.
- Both types of experience reduced personal optimism about infection likelihood but enhanced optimism for good outcomes.
- Perceived control over infection and disease severity decreased, but did not mediate optimism changes.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 experiences shape personal optimism, particularly regarding infection risk and recovery.
- Findings have implications for public health messaging, suggesting a need to address altered risk perceptions.
- The study highlights the importance of considering both direct and indirect experiences in risk communication strategies.
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