Modeling healthcare resource dynamics and its application based on interregional population mobility

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Acute infectious disease outbreaks pose significant challenges to healthcare systems.
• Population mobility is a key factor influencing epidemic progression and resource demand.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of inter-regional population mobility on epidemic progression.
• To evaluate the effect of population movement on healthcare resource congestion during pandemics.
• To provide a scientific basis for population control and resource allocation during outbreaks.

Main Methods:

• A dynamic healthcare resource model was developed using SARS-CoV-2 data and migration indices.
• Case studies included two city pairs: "Taiyuan-Jinzhong" and "Linfen-Yuncheng".
• Key metrics included cumulative cases, onset time of healthcare resource congestion, and its duration.

Main Results:

• Population mobility influences both cumulative cases and healthcare resource congestion.
• Unidirectional movement restrictions had varied effects, reducing cases in outflow regions but increasing them in inflow regions.
• Bidirectional restrictions showed different impacts based on regional prevalence, affecting case numbers and resource congestion duration.

Conclusions:

• The developed model effectively simulates the interplay between population mobility, epidemic spread, and healthcare resource strain.
• The model can inform targeted interventions for optimized healthcare resource allocation during public health emergencies.
• This approach aids in containing epidemics, alleviating medical system pressure, and minimizing socio-economic disruption.