Baseline and longitudinal changes in cortical thickness and hippocampal volume predict cognitive decline

Area of Science:

• Neurology
• Radiology
• Gerontology

Background:

• Identifying individuals at risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for disease-modifying treatments.
• Current biomarkers for early AD detection include amyloid PET, CSF analysis, and blood tests.
• Structural brain changes detectable by MRI may precede dementia onset by decades, offering predictive potential.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the predictive power of hippocampal volume and cortical thickness on cognitive decline.
• To determine if MRI-based structural brain metrics can identify individuals at risk for cognitive decline without relying on specific AD biomarkers.

Main Methods:

• Utilized MRI data from 344 participants (cognitively unimpaired or mild cognitive impairment, aged 50-86).
• Evaluated longitudinal changes in cortical thickness and hippocampal volume.
• Employed a random coefficient model to analyze structural changes and predict cognitive decline using a global cognitive composite score.

Main Results:

• Baseline cortical thickness and hippocampal volume predicted cognitive decline across all participants.
• In cognitively unimpaired individuals, decreases in cortical thickness and hippocampal volume independently predicted decline.
• In participants with mild cognitive impairment, reduced hippocampal volume predicted further cognitive decline.

Conclusions:

• MRI-based structural brain measurements are effective in predicting future cognitive decline.
• MRI serves as a valuable tool for identifying individuals at elevated risk, especially as the global population ages.
• These findings support the use of MRI for early risk stratification in neurodegenerative diseases.