[Regional Differences and Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity Influencing Factors of Carbon Neutrality Capacity in China]

Carbon neutrality is an important strategy for China to cope with the present climate change， and it is also the main task and goal in future economic and social development. This study uses the carbon source and carbon sink estimation model to calculate the carbon neutral capacity （CNC） of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2021. Furthermore， this study investigates the regional differences of CNC in China by using the Dagum Gini coefficient， and applies the STIRPAT-GTWR model to reveal the influencing factors of spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The results were as follows： ① During the study period， the average carbon sink in China was approximately 78.84 Mt， and that in Inner Mongolia， Heilongjiang， Sichuan， and Yunnan was as high as 166 Mt， mainly in the western region. However， the average carbon source was 227.73 Mt， which was about three times that of the carbon sink. The carbon sources in Shandong， Hebei， and Jiangsu were as high as 400 Mt， mainly concentrated in the eastern region. In addition， the growth rate of carbon sources was much faster than that of carbon sinks； the carbon emissions generated by energy consumption were especially growing rapidly. ② The CNC was generally decreasing in the study period， which suggest that CNC development in provinces and cities was not optimistic， and its spatial distribution was consistent with that of carbon sinks， showing a spatial pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. ③ There were regional differences in China's CNC， with the largest difference in the eastern region， followed by the northeast and west， and the smallest in the central region， and the intra-group differences were the main reasons for the overall differences in CNC. ④ There was obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the influencing factors of CNC in China. Energy intensity， energy structure， economic development level， and urbanization level were the main factors that affected the CNC of China. These results can clarify the status quo of CNC and its heterogeneous driving factors in China's provinces and cities and help provinces and cities to formulate differentiated and targeted strategies of "increasing carbon sinks and reducing carbon emissions" to enhance the regional CNC and help China achieve carbon neutrality at an early date.