Using AI to model future societal instability

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomics
• Demographics
• Political Science

Background:

• Existing models predict future political crises, notably by Turchin.
• Societal instability predictions are often limited to Western nations.
• Forecasting future structural constraints requires robust comparative analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a predictive model for future structural constraints and resulting instability.
• To offer an alternative forecast to looming crisis predictions.
• To extend instability predictions beyond Western countries.

Main Methods:

• Utilizes existing datasets to extrapolate long-term patterns.
• Employs a comparative-historical analysis framework.
• Compares four diverse national cases: United States, Sweden, India, and China.

Main Results:

• A likely scenario involves fiscal constraints limiting state revenue against rising social spending.
• A shrinking working-age population is projected to cause a spending crisis in China.
• Social tensions are anticipated in other countries due to demographic shifts.

Conclusions:

• The model suggests an increasing inability to manage fiscal and social spending pressures.
• Future instability is probable, driven by demographic changes and fiscal limitations.
• The findings provide an alternative to crisis-driven geopolitical forecasting.