How environmental futures can inform decision making: A review

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Policy analysis
• Futures studies

Background:

• Environmental decision-making is often hindered by uncertainty, leading to reactive rather than proactive management.
• Exploring potential environmental futures and uncertainties is crucial for informed policy development.
• Futures programs offer systems-level understanding and encourage thinking beyond conventional approaches.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and discuss key attributes of environmental futures programs.
• To propose program attributes that facilitate successful integration with decision-making processes.
• To enhance the utility of environmental futures for effective decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Review of selected environmental and non-environmental futures programs.
• Analysis of program attributes including purpose, audience, methods, uncertainty handling, and success metrics.
• Identification of best practices for connecting futures programs with decision processes.

Main Results:

• Identified key attributes influencing the effectiveness of futures programs.
• Highlighted the importance of addressing uncertainty, assumptions, values, and biases.
• Emphasized the role of program goals and success measurement in connecting with decision-makers.

Conclusions:

• Combining multiple futures methods provides complementary insights and reveals assumption inconsistencies.
• Visualizing assumptions and drivers, alongside defined success criteria, increases program utility.
• Implementing these recommendations can improve the acceptance and contribution of futures products to environmental decisions.