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Published on: June 4, 2021
Reduction in Earth's carbon budget imbalance.
Sudhanshu Pandey1, Frédéric Chevallier2, Christian Rödenbeck3
1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. sudhanshu.pandey@jpl.nasa.gov.
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has reduced its global carbon budget imbalance by 37% through improved models and data. This indicates significant progress in understanding Earth's carbon cycle and more accurate carbon sink estimates.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Climate Science
- Carbon Cycle Research
Background:
- The Global Carbon Project (GCP) annually synthesizes estimates of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, land and ocean sinks, and atmospheric CO2 growth rate.
- The global carbon budget imbalance highlights aggregate inaccuracies in these component estimates.
- Marine boundary layer (MBL) growth rate estimates are considered highly accurate, with land and ocean sink models often cited as primary sources of imbalance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate discrepancies arising from using MBL growth rates to represent the entire atmosphere.
- To quantify the reduction in the global carbon budget imbalance through corrections and model improvements.
- To assess the overall improvement in the scientific understanding of Earth's carbon cycle.
Main Methods:
- Correcting MBL growth rate estimates for whole-atmosphere representation using atmospheric flux inversion.
- Analyzing the global carbon budget imbalance metric between the 2017 and 2023 GCP reports.
- Evaluating the impact of updates to carbon budget components, forcing data, and new carbon cycle processes.
Main Results:
- Correcting for MBL discrepancies reduced the 2023 GCP report's root-mean-square (RMS) imbalance by up to 25%.
- Between 2017 and 2023, overall imbalance decreased by 16% due to component updates and process improvements.
- A combined 37% reduction in RMS imbalance (from 0.91 to 0.57 PgC yr-1) was achieved through model enhancements and atmospheric growth rate corrections.
Conclusions:
- Land and ocean process models are more accurate than previously assumed.
- Improvements in process models and emission inventories are quantitatively demonstrated.
- Scientific understanding of Earth's carbon cycle has significantly advanced.
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