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Attributing 2019-2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations.

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Atmospheric methane levels rose due to a mix of factors including increasing emissions from livestock and waste, and decreasing OH concentrations. Recent trends show a weaker rise driven by increasing OH concentrations.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric chemistry and climate science
  • Environmental monitoring and remote sensing

Background:

  • Atmospheric methane concentrations have risen by 0.7% annually from 2019-2024.
  • The precise drivers of this methane increase remain unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify annual mean methane emissions and hemispheric OH concentrations from 2019-2024.
  • To identify the key factors contributing to the observed rise in atmospheric methane.

Main Methods:

  • Analytical inversion of bias-corrected TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations.
  • Quantification of methane emissions and OH concentrations over a five-year period.

Main Results:

  • The methane rise is attributed to approaching steady state (59%), increasing emissions (25%), and decreasing OH concentrations (16%).
  • Global methane emissions fluctuated, with increases from livestock and waste offsetting decreases from oil/gas and rice.
  • East Africa and South America were primary contributors to emission increases.

Conclusions:

  • The recent slowdown in methane rise (2022-2024) is primarily due to increasing OH concentrations.
  • Understanding regional emission changes and atmospheric sink dynamics is crucial for methane mitigation strategies.