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Attributing 2019-2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations
Megan He1, Daniel J Jacob1, Lucas A Estrada1
1School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Abstract:
Atmospheric methane concentrations increased at a rate of 0.7% year-1 over 2019-2024, but the causes are unclear. We conducted an analytical inversion of bias-corrected TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations to quantify 2019-2024 annual mean methane emissions and hemispheric OH concentrations. We find that the methane rise from 2019 to 2024 reflects an approach to steady state between 2019 sources and sinks (59% of the rise), augmented by increasing emissions (25%) and decreasing OH concentrations (16%). Global emissions increased from 571 teragrams (Tg) per year in 2019 to 601 Tg per year in 2021 and back to 575 Tg per year in 2024. 2019-2024 emission decreases from oil/gas and rice were offset by increases from livestock and waste. East Africa and South America were most responsible for the 2019-2024 increase in emissions. The weaker methane rise over 2022-2024 was driven mostly by increasing OH concentrations rather than decreasing emissions.
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