Epidemic Dynamics Post-Cyclone and Tidal Surge Events in the Bay of Bengal Region

Background: The Sundarbans, prone to cyclones and tidal surges, witnessed 13 cyclones (1961-2020), causing widespread water and vector-borne diseases, injuries, deaths, crop and livestock loss, and long-term health issues. Objectives: This study investigates the impact of multi-purpose cyclone shelters on the health outcomes of the Sundarbans population, focusing on epidemic-prone diseases caused by these natural disasters. Methods: The study used secondary data from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) portal, Census of India, International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTracs), Department of Disaster Management, and Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc (ESRI) India, to understand the association of environmental, social, demographic, geographic, and economic factors on water and vector-borne diseases and cyclonic events for 19 census development (CD) blocks. Maps were prepared using ArcGIS Pro v.2.8. A literature review was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of cyclone shelters and potential shortcomings in addressing and mitigating these unintended health outcomes post-disaster. Data analysis in SPSS used the chi-square test and Student's t-test. Findings: The study found that the prevalence of waterborne diseases across the CD blocks in Sundarbans was significantly higher in the cyclonic years compared to the non-cyclonic years (t = 6.69), regardless of the seasons. Prevalence of vector-borne diseases was also significantly higher in the cyclonic years compared to the non-cyclonic years (t = 2.55). It was also found that the existing literature lacks detailed accounts of shelter residents' experiences, illnesses, and pre-existing health issues, particularly addressing the needs of vulnerable populations like women, children, and the elderly. Conclusion: The study highlights gaps in India's research on evacuee experiences in cyclone shelters, particularly for vulnerable populations like women, children, and the elderly and sick. Future research should focus on primary studies focusing on evacuee experiences, material innovation, and climate-resilient design of cyclone shelters.