The Probability of an AMOC Collapse Onset in the Twenty-First Century

Area of Science:

• Oceanography
• Climate Science
• Earth System Science

Background:

• The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a critical component of global ocean circulation.
• AMOC is sensitive to surface buoyancy anomalies and may be nearing a tipping point.
• A potential collapse of AMOC could lead to significant climate disruptions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the fitness of current Earth system models for predicting AMOC stability.
• To present the current status of probability estimates for AMOC collapse before 2100.
• To inform policymakers about the risks associated with AMOC changes.

Main Methods:

• Evaluation of Earth system models' capability to capture present-day AMOC stability.
• Review and synthesis of existing estimates for AMOC collapse onset probabilities.
• Analysis of AMOC's sensitivity to surface buoyancy anomalies.

Main Results:

• Current Earth system models' performance in simulating AMOC stability is under scrutiny.
• Estimates of AMOC collapse probabilities before 2100 are being compiled and assessed.
• The study highlights the urgency of reliable AMOC stability predictions.

Conclusions:

• Accurate prediction of AMOC stability is crucial for understanding future climate scenarios.
• Further research and model development are needed to refine AMOC collapse predictions.
• Policymakers require robust estimates to mitigate potential climate impacts.