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A radiomics-based interpretable model integrating delayed-phase CT and clinical features for predicting the
Dong Bai1,2, Guanjun Shi3, Yuanzi Liang1
1Department of Radiology, Aerospace Center Hospital, Beijing, China.
Objective:
This study aimed to develop an interpretable machine learning model integrating delayed-phase contrast-enhanced CT radiomics with clinical features for noninvasive prediction of pathological grading in appendiceal pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP), using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) for model interpretation.
Materials And Methods:
This retrospective study analyzed 158 pathologically confirmed PMP cases (85 low-grade, 73 high-grade) from January 4, 2015 to April 30, 2024. Comprehensive clinical data including demographic characteristics, serum tumor markers (CEA, CA19-9, CA125, D-dimer, CA-724, CA-242), and CT-peritoneal cancer index (CT-PCI) were collected. Radiomics features were extracted from preoperative contrast-enhanced CT scans using standardized protocols. After rigorous feature selection and five-fold cross-validation, we developed three predictive models: clinical-only, radiomics-only, and a combined clinical-radiomics model using logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated through ROC analysis (AUC), Delong test, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Brier score, with SHAP values providing interpretability.
Results:
The combined model demonstrated superior performance, achieving AUCs of 0.91 (95%CI:0.86-0.95) and 0.88 (95%CI:0.82-0.93) in training and testing sets respectively, significantly outperforming standalone models (P < 0.05). DCA confirmed greater clinical utility across most threshold probabilities, with favorable Brier scores (training:0.124; testing:0.142) indicating excellent calibration. SHAP analysis identified the top predictive features: wavelet-LHH_glcm_InverseVariance (radiomics), original_shape_Elongation (radiomics), and CA-199 (clinical).
Conclusion:
Our SHAP-interpretable combined model provides an accurate, noninvasive tool for PMP grading, facilitating personalized treatment decisions. The integration of radiomics and clinical data demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to conventional approaches, with potential to improve patient outcomes.
