Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Postoperative Deep Vein Thrombosis Following Tibial Fracture Surgery

Background/Objectives: Postoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a common and serious complication after tibial fracture surgery. This study aimed to develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models to predict the occurrence of DVT following tibia fracture surgery. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients who had undergone surgery for isolated tibial fractures. A total of 42 predictive models were developed using combinations of six ML algorithms-logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and neural networks-and seven feature selection methods, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Boruta, recursive feature elimination, univariate filtering, and full-variable inclusion. Model performance was assessed based on discrimination, quantified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), and calibration, measured using Brier scores, with internal validation performed via bootstrapping. Results: Of 471 patients, 80 (17.0%) developed postoperative DVT. The ML models achieved high overall accuracy in predicting DVT. Twenty-four models showed similarly excellent discrimination (pairwise AUC comparisons, p > 0.05). The top-performing model (random forest with RFE) attained an AUC of ~0.99, while several others (including LightGBM and SVM-based models) also reached AUC values in the 0.97-0.99 range. Notably, support vector machine models paired with Boruta or LASSO feature selection demonstrated the best calibration (lowest Brier scores), indicating reliable risk estimation. The final selected SVM models achieved high specificity (≥95%) with moderate sensitivity (~75-80%) for DVT detection. Conclusions: ML models demonstrated high accuracy in predicting postoperative DVT following tibial fracture surgery. Support vector machine-based models showed particularly favorable discrimination and calibration. These results suggest the potential utility of ML-based risk stratification to guide individualized prophylaxis, warranting further validation in prospective clinical settings.