Low-carbon transition of China's monocrystalline module and its global contributions

Although photovoltaic (PV) power is widely viewed as a zero-carbon solution, its upstream module production remains highly carbon-intensive. Existing studies often fail to capture supply chain heterogeneity and spatial differences in production, limiting assessments of the sector's low-carbon transition. This study conducted a carbon footprint analysis of monocrystalline modules manufactured in China from 2008 to 2023, incorporating refined data for supplier-specific configurations and province-level electricity carbon intensity. Results showed that production-side carbon footprints fell from 2.01-3.24 kg CO₂-eq/Wp to 0.31-0.39 kg CO₂-eq/Wp, with module encapsulation becoming the major contributor. Global large-scale PV deployment drove the consumption-side footprint to increase 35-fold to 112.25 Mt CO₂-eq in 2023, with two-thirds being exported. This implies that the electricity decarbonization in other countries comes at the cost of increased carbon emissions in China. Future should use industrial layout transfer, green materials supply, and process innovation to decarbonize China's monocrystalline modules substantially.