Drug decriminalization policy under the microscope in the United States: crime data considerations to inform future...

When voters passed the 2020 Ballot Measure 110 (M110), the U.S. State of Oregon changed course from a criminal legal system response to a health-centered approach to substance use. M110 was passed with the goal of making health assessment screenings, treatment, and recovery services for substance use disorder available to all who need them and reduce the harms associated with involving the criminal legal system for people who use drugs. Although drug decriminalization was enacted in February 2021, most of M110's funding streams for substance use disorder treatment, harm reduction, and housing assistance were delayed until August 2022. In the absence of health- or treatment-related data, preliminary studies used pre- and post-crime trend data to show that possession of controlled substances arrests decreased after Oregon implemented drug decriminalization. The goal of this methods piece is to inform researchers and governments about the nuances of crime data when these data are often the only means available to assess a new drug policy. Given the multiple factors that occurred immediately before or contemporaneous to enactment of M110 (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic, Oregon's acute affordable housing shortage), we consider the methodological issues of prematurely attempting to answer research questions using available crime trend data and associated analytic models to make determinations about whether M110 was meeting its intended goals. Patience and time are needed for ensuring that the necessary and appropriate data are available that correspond to policy goals. We include recommendations for future analyses when more robust data are available to holistically assess the impacts of drug policies.