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Estimating latent individual demographic heterogeneity using structural equation models.

Thomas V Riecke1,2, Rémi Fay3, Johann Hegelbach4

  • 1Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study reveals significant individual differences in survival and reproduction in wild birds. Advanced statistical modeling helps quantify this variation, crucial for understanding population ecology and evolutionary processes.

Keywords:
Cinclus cinclusFicedula hypoleucademographyfitnessindividual heterogeneityresidual reproductive valuesenescencestructural equation model

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Area of Science:

  • Population ecology
  • Evolutionary ecology
  • Quantitative genetics

Background:

  • Measuring individual fitness drivers in wild populations is challenging due to imperfect observation.
  • Estimates of individual variation in survival and breeding are often unreliable with imperfect detection and small sample sizes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and demonstrate a structural equation modeling approach for estimating latent individual variation in demographic performance.
  • To link this latent variation to specific demographic components like survival and fecundity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized structural equation modeling (SEM) on long-term (30+ years) capture-recapture data.
  • Applied the SEM approach to two passerine species: white-throated dipper (Cinclus cinclus) and pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca).
  • Simultaneously estimated latent individual quality and age-specific demographic variation.

Main Results:

  • Identified senescent decline in survival and fecundity in both studied species.
  • Demonstrated substantial among-individual heterogeneity in demographic performance.
  • Found that older, higher-quality individuals had greater residual reproductive value than younger, lower-quality individuals.

Conclusions:

  • Structural equation modeling provides a robust method for estimating latent individual variation in demographic performance in wild populations.
  • The approach reveals significant heterogeneity in fitness components and age-related declines.
  • Findings have implications for understanding evolutionary processes and conservation strategies in wild populations.