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The science fiction science method.

Iyad Rahwan1, Azim Shariff2, Jean-François Bonnefon3

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This study introduces "science fiction science," an experimental method to predict future technology impacts. It aims to guide development and regulation by quantitatively measuring user attitudes and behaviors in simulated future scenarios.

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Area of Science:

  • Social Sciences
  • Experimental Psychology
  • Technology Forecasting

Background:

  • Traditional methods for predicting technology's societal impact are qualitative and narrative.
  • Early prediction is crucial for guiding technology development and regulation.
  • Experimental scientists face validity concerns with novel predictive methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and advocate for an experimental method called "science fiction science."
  • To address the validity threats associated with simulating future technologies.
  • To explore unconventional methods for quantitative assessment of future impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing experimental simulations of future technologies.
  • Collecting quantitative data on participant attitudes and behaviors.
  • Assigning participants to controlled variations of simulated futures.

Main Results:

  • The proposed "science fiction science" method offers a quantitative approach to predicting impacts.
  • Addresses validity concerns through careful consideration of technological constraints and immersive methods.
  • Highlights the potential benefits of normalizing these experimental approaches.

Conclusions:

  • "Science fiction science" can provide valuable quantitative insights into the social and behavioral impacts of emerging technologies.
  • Overcoming methodological reluctance and embracing unconventional approaches is key to advancing this field.
  • Normalizing these methods will foster a community dedicated to improving predictive validity for future technologies.