Advanced machine learning models for prediction of readmission and mortality risks in patients with chronic...

To develop a comprehensive machine learning model incorporating various clinical factors, including frailty and comorbidities, to predict 30-day readmission and mortality risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

This retrospective cohort study used electronic health records (EHR) from Fujita Health University Hospital (2004-2019) for 1294 patients with COPD and 3499 hospitalization or death events. The EHR contained longitudinal patient data (demographics, diagnoses, test results, clinical records). We developed two eXtreme Gradient Boosting models, the comprehensive Top64 and practical 11-feature models. We compared these with the Comorbidity, Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Previous Exacerbations index (CODEX) model, a widely used tool for predicting hospital readmission or death in patients with COPD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (CI), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model performance.

The Top64 (AUC: 0.769, 95% CI: 0.747-0.791) and practical 11-feature (AUC: 0.746, 95% CI: 0.730-0.762) models performed better than the CODEX model (AUC: 0.587, 95% CI: 0.563-0.611). The Top64 model showed 0.978 sensitivity and 0.341 specificity, and the practical 11-feature model achieved 0.955 sensitivity and 0.361 specificity. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the observed and predicted results for both models.

A machine learning approach based on clinical data readily available from the EHR performed better than existing models in predicting 30-day readmission and mortality risks in patients with COPD. A comprehensive risk prediction tool may enhance individualized care strategies and improve patient outcomes in COPD management.