Wisconsin Policies Shift Handgun Purchasing Behavior 2000-2024

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Criminology
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Statewide firearm policies influence weapon manufacturing, sales, and accessibility.
• Wisconsin enacted three key policies impacting firearm access since 2011: concealed carry legalization, repeal of handgun waiting periods, and COVID-19 stay-at-home orders.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the impact of Wisconsin's firearm policy changes on handgun purchases.
• To investigate the association between increased handgun accessibility and firearm deaths.

Main Methods:

• Utilized monthly National Instant Criminal Background Check System data (2000-2024) for handgun background checks.
• Employed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast background check trends.
• Correlated annual firearm deaths (Wisconsin Violent Death Reporting System, 2004-2021) with handgun background checks.

Main Results:

• Significant increases in handgun background checks were observed post-policy implementation: 204.3% after concealed carry legalization, 12.8% after waiting period repeal, and 78.6% after the COVID-19 stay-at-home order.
• Strong correlation (r=0.887) found between annual handgun background checks and annual firearm deaths.
• Concealed carry legalization showed the most substantial long-term impact on background check increases.

Conclusions:

• Each policy change correlated with an increase in handgun background checks.
• The study underscores the strong association between firearm purchasing trends and firearm deaths in Wisconsin.
• Findings emphasize the need to consider the impact of firearm policies on public safety and mortality.