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Puerto Rico exodus: Long-Term Economic Headwinds Prove Stronger than Hurricane Maria
Alexis R Santos-Lozada1, Matt Kaneshiro2, Collin McCarter3
1Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Population and Environment
|August 12, 2025
Summary
Puerto Rico
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Economics
- Disaster Recovery
Background:
- Hurricane Maria caused widespread destruction in Puerto Rico, impacting essential services and necessitating recovery planning.
- High-quality data for assessing disaster impact and guiding recovery efforts were previously scarce.
- Longitudinal demographic and economic data are now available for analyzing population changes post-disaster.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze long-term population changes in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria.
- To differentiate the impacts of economic factors versus hurricane events on population dynamics.
- To estimate net migration patterns between 2010 and 2018 using air passenger data.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing longitudinal demographic and economic data spanning Hurricane Maria.
- Analyzing population and employment trends in relation to hurricanes and economic events.
- Examining pre- and post-Hurricane Maria air passenger travel data to calculate net migration.
Main Results:
- Population change is more sensitive to employment shocks than to hurricane events.
- A significant increase in out-migration occurred after Hurricane Maria.
- Return immigration was observed in early 2018, suggesting temporary displacement.
- Economic struggles are identified as the primary driver of net out-migration.
Conclusions:
- Economic stimulation is crucial for Puerto Rico's long-term recovery and population stability.
- Hurricane-related out-migration appears to be largely temporary.
- Policy interventions should prioritize economic development to mitigate persistent out-migration.
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