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Predicting Performance in a Military Hand-to-Hand Combat Course From Salivary Hormones, Psychological State, and

Meaghan E Beckner^1,2, Jesse A Stein^1,2, Drew Van Dam³

¹Military Nutrition Division, US Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, Massachusetts, USA.

Stress and Health : Journal of the International Society for the Investigation of Stress

|August 12, 2025

Summary

High self-confidence and strong physical performance predict success in military combatives. Cognitive anxiety can decrease winning odds, but self-confidence and physical GPA may mitigate this effect.

Keywords:

combat sports cortisol military education military personnel stress response testosterone

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Area of Science:

Sports Science
Military Psychology
Physiology

Background:

High-stress environments require controlled aggressive behavior, but predictors of success are understudied.
Military combatives courses offer a unique setting to examine physiological and psychological factors influencing performance in high-stakes combat scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

To identify physiological, psychological, and academic predictors of success in a military combatives course's final hand-to-hand combat match.
To assess the impact of self-confidence, anxiety, resilience, mental toughness, aggression, and physiological markers on combat performance.

Main Methods:

132 cadets (109 male, 23 female) completed psychological assessments (resilience, mental toughness, aggression) and provided saliva samples for hormone and SIgA analysis.
Mood state, self-confidence, and competitive state anxiety were measured before the final match.
Logistic regression analyzed predictors of match outcome (win/loss), controlling for covariates like sex and prior experience. Academic, military, and physical GPAs were also considered.

Main Results:

Higher self-confidence (OR 1.13) and a better physical GPA (OR 4.51) were significantly associated with increased odds of winning the final match.
Greater cognitive anxiety independently decreased the odds of winning (OR 0.93), but this effect was not significant when self-confidence and physical GPA were considered.
The model, including self-confidence and physical GPA, achieved 68.9% classification accuracy and explained 31% of the variance in match outcome. No other factors significantly predicted success.

Conclusions:

Self-confidence and physical performance are critical determinants of success in military hand-to-hand combat.
These factors may mediate the impact of anxiety on performance, suggesting that interventions should focus on enhancing confidence and physical readiness.