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Rising CO2 and Decarbonization Strategies of Aviation in China in the Coming Decade
Jingran Zhang1,2, Jingnan Zhang3, Junheng Yan3
1Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.
Environmental Science & Technology
|August 14, 2025
Summary
China's aviation emissions are projected to surge 50% by 2035 despite efficiency gains. Decarbonization efforts face significant challenges and financial burdens, necessitating urgent policy development for sustainable aviation.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Transportation Engineering
- Climate Change Policy
Background:
- The aviation industry contributes significantly to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
- China's aviation sector is poised for substantial growth, presenting unique decarbonization challenges.
- Current fleet size in China was 3645 aircraft in 2019.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future CO2 emissions from China's aviation sector.
- To evaluate the impact of technological advancements and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) on emissions.
- To assess the financial implications of international climate regulations on China's aviation industry.
Main Methods:
- Development of an integrated model incorporating travel demand, fleet turnover, and technological improvements.
- Projection of revenue passenger kilometers and aircraft fleet expansion.
- Analysis of potential CO2 emission reductions through efficiency enhancements and SAF integration.
Main Results:
- China's revenue passenger kilometers are expected to double by 2035, necessitating fleet expansion to over 8,000 aircraft.
- Fleet carbon efficiency improvements of 2.0% per year are projected through technology and SAF.
- Cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 290-460 Mt are possible by 2035, with technology contributing 60%-70%.
Conclusions:
- Even with mitigation strategies, China's aviation emissions are projected to exceed 2019 levels by 50% in 2035.
- Implementing CORSIA and SAF mandates could cost China over $10 billion (2025-2035).
- Urgent development and implementation of effective decarbonization policies are crucial for China's aviation sector.
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