Deriving Early Citrus Fruit Yield Estimation by Combining Multiple Growing Period Data and Improved YOLOv8 Modeling

Early crop yield prediction is a major challenge in precision agriculture, and efficient and rapid yield prediction is highly important for sustainable fruit production. The accurate detection of major fruit characteristics, including flowering, green fruiting, and ripening stages, is crucial for early yield estimation. Currently, most crop yield estimation studies based on the YOLO model are only conducted during a single stage of maturity. Combining multi-growth period data for crop analysis is of great significance for crop growth detection and early yield estimation. In this study, a new network model, YOLOv8-RL, was proposed using citrus multigrowth period characteristics as a data source. A citrus yield estimation model was constructed and validated by combining network identification counts with manual field counts. Compared with YOLOv8, the number of parameters of the improved network is reduced by 50.7%, the number of floating-point operations is decreased by 49.4%, and the size of the model is only 3.2 MB. In the test set, the average recognition rate of citrus flowers, green fruits, and orange fruits was 95.6%, the mAP@.5 was 94.6%, the FPS value was 123.1, and the inference time was only 2.3 milliseconds. This provides a reference for the design of lightweight networks and offers the possibility of deployment on embedded devices with limited computational resources. The two estimation models constructed on the basis of the new network had coefficients of determination R² values of 0.91992 and 0.95639, respectively, with a prediction error rate of 6.96% for citrus green fruits and an average error rate of 3.71% for orange fruits. Compared with network counting, the yield estimation model had a low error rate and high accuracy, which provided a theoretical basis and technical support for the early prediction of fruit yield in complex environments.